Sunday, 26 July 2015

Trump is the candidate America has been waiting for

For years wannabe political leaders have emerged from businesses proclaiming that their business skills will be just the thing to lead the country to prosperity. After all, if they can run a business, they can run a country/state/city. Now here's Donald Trump proclaiming the same thing.

Trump's big idea for border security is to build a wall from San Diego to Texas, along the entire border. Paying for the massive structure? He will force the Mexicans to pay for it, because he believes he can negotiate by strangling their economy.

This is the kind of bully tactics that can get you to the top of the heap in business. Ignore the fact that economic relations and political relations are governed by a mutual respect. Ignore the fact that the North American Free Trade Agreement is in place. Just use brute economic force. That's what dealing with a big company is like for must of us regular folk. Even when the law is on your side, big companies have armies of lawyers to fight for their ability to do whatever the hell they want.

But that's the way America operates in the world. The US does not let its military answer to the World Court. Americans cannot be tried for war crimes. America drops bombs on anyone it perceives as an enemy when they are out of reach of other means. American's armed might is disproportionately larger than any other country. The invasion of Iraq should have been seen as a war crime in itself: justified by lies, leaving millions dead, homeless and dispossessed in its wake.

No, Donald Trump is exactly the leader America has been waiting for. It's highly unlikely he will be elected and not just because the majority of Americans are actually rational, fair-minded, intelligent individuals.

Trump's rise to the top of the polls is unlikely to last because Trump misunderstands both politics and business. His billions don't match the billions of the Kock brothers, and unlike them, he doesn't understand the power of the PAC. Trump may be prepared to spend a lot of his fortune on getting to the White House, but he's only looking at the official spending of other candidates. The real money (and in this election it's particularly important) is in the unofficial spending. When the soft money starts flowing, Trump won't be able to keep up. He doesn't see how behind-the-scenes alliances make a big difference.

I just hope Trump can stay in the race until the first debate. It's bound to be hilarious and an opportunity for him to say more outrageous things. After that, there's bound to be a coalescence around a few of the other more reasonable candidates, until Trump decides to take his marbles and go home, like the schoolyard bully he is.