Friday, 11 September 2015

Debate could be Trump's Waterloo

Although the New York Times reports candidates are not looking to knock Trump out of the race, I think Trump may be heading for a fall. Conservative commentator Hugh Hewitt will be on hand to ask foreign policy questions, and he has already roused The Donald's ire over such questions.

Asked about certain leaders in the Middle East (I won't name them because I don't know them myself, but then again, I'm not running for POTUS) Trump stumbled. What is telling about this misstep is not that he didn't know the names of some long-time Middle Eastern leaders, but that he is not spending his time with advisors studying actual foreign affairs. Of course it would have been worse if he didn't know the name of the President of Mexico or the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

Of course Trump responded in typical fashion with ad hominem attacks, calling Hewitt a second-rate journalist. Again, we see Trump's weakness. Although his base might lap it up for a while, sooner or later most rational people will realize that Trump has no solid policy knowledge. Or am I overestimating the intelligence of the American electorate?

What I think this tells us is that Trump is flying on ego. He makes speeches that are short on detail and the public laps it up. But veteran journalists should not be fooled by this rhetoric. That's what Hugh Hewitt shows us. Anyone running for President should have a good grasp on the state of the world and how the US political system actually works.

We saw a little of this in the first debate when Trump was asked for more details on his border wall proposal. He was asked how he "knows" that "criminals and rapists" are being sent by Mexico to the US. His answer is revealing of his typical tactic. He began by saying he visited the border and spoke to border agents. But instead of giving specifics detailing even one instance of an individual being sent by the Mexican government into the US illegally, he swerved into generalities and bombast. A good journalist would have gone back to the original question: "How do you know the Mexican government is sending people across the border?" But the Fox anchor dropped the ball. I have a sense that CNN will do a little better.

This may expose the weakness of the other candidates as well. I don't think any of the "outsiders" have the background knowledge to provide details about foreign policy, domestic policy, or any other policy. Possibly Fiorina has a team helping her getting up to speed, but I get no sense of that deep understanding of the job from Carson.

This may well be the turning point that Bush has been waiting for. No doubt, as the establishment candidate (not to mention brother and son of former Presidents), he has the deep understanding of the state of the world needed to lead the US. Rubio, also, is supposed to be strong on foreign policy.

It takes more than policy to lead a country, but leadership without knowledge is dangerous. It's about time the Republican Party separated the wheat from the chaff and moved toward the primaries with a much smaller field of candidates who are actually competent on policy.

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