Rubio will the the GOP nominee

OK, you heard it here first! I'm calling Marco Rubio as the winner of the GOP nomination marathon.

Yes, it's early days and gaffes, pitfalls and unexpected blowback are still to be experienced, but I think Rubio's the logical choice.

Let's look at my track record. I said the second debate would be Trump's downfall. OK, I was a little off on that. But Trump's failure to stand up to Fiorina's attack showed that he could be wounded. Fiorina has soared since then. Carson has been coming on strong since the first debate. But neither of these outsider candidates will survive the media scrutiny and organizational rigors of the next few months.

Last cycle we had a number of "front runners" over the early part of the process. Voters are trying out different things and anyone could be the flavor of the month.

Going toward Iowa, Carson is loved by evangelicals. But eventually his "nice guy" demeanor will rub off a little and people will see that his lack of experience in anything like running a large complex organization will make him unsuitable for the job. Already he's had to retract statements about Muslims. Carson makes conservatives feel good about themselves because they can support a black man.

On the other hand Fiorina, whatever her record at HP, has the leadership skills to not only run a campaign, but possibly hold elected office. Fiorina appeals to the conservatives who hate women. Of all the candidates' attacks on Planned Parenthood, hers is the most appealing to the conservative base precisely  because it is coming from a woman, who should know better. She appeals to people who see her being able to siphon support from Clinton in the general election.  Unlike Trump, she has detailed proposals. However, her proposals are not really rational or effective, and now she's going to have to spend time defending herself.

Anyway, Trump still tops the polls, but he's falling. According to the Washington Post, both Fiorina and Carson are gaining on him. So if neither of them are going to last who will?

Cruz would like to take Trump's supporters when he comes to his inevitable end. I think most of those people will crawl back under the rocks that they came from.

The party will have to appeal to people who have been alienated by the xenophobic rhetoric whipped up by Trump. That's where Rubio comes in. Now tied for third with Fiorina, he's perfectly positioned to be the party's go-to guy when the freak show comes to an end.

Trump will drop out after Iowa or New Hampshire, likely finishing below third in both. Carson may win Iowa, but can't sustain a front-runner status long. The establishment needs someone to get behind, and although that position should naturally be Bush's, he's not been able to campaign like a winner.

That's why I'm calling it for Rubio.