Watch Christie in Tuesday's debate

In a couple of days the Republican hopefuls will again assemble on a stage to ostensibly compare policy strengths and weaknesses in a rational debate.

As if.

More likely it will be battle, the likes of which has not been seen on a debate stage this primary season. Let's see why.

First, the frontrunner, Donald Trump has seen a number of opponents creeping up on his numbers. First Carson, now Cruz.

Remember when he called Jeb "low key"? That was when conventional wisdom was that the outsiders would fade fast, as they did in past primary seasons. But as in a warming world, the seasons ain't what they used to be. Trump has had to fight to defend his position.

Lately he's been trying to claim the evangelical territory from Cruz. Now I don't know anything about real estate mogul Trump's Presbyterian credentials, but I'm sure a Bible belting Iowan can see more evangelical bona fides in Cruz, the son of a preacher man, than in Trump, who couldn't quote his favorite Bible phrase earlier in the contest. Trump may not be able to fight the Battle of Jericho with Cruz, but he will likely try to paint him as soft on Muslims.

Speaking of Muslims, if any Republican on Tuesday takes a stand to denounce the rabid Islamophobia of the last few weeks, I'll convert to Islam on Wednesday because that will be a sure sign of a miracle.

Let's take a look at the candidates on the main stage to see what each has to do.

Trump

As stated, The Donald needs to hang on to his lead. In the last debate, he was pretty low key himself. I think his advisors told him to try keep it down to avoid a major gaffe. But low key doesn't work for him. Coming out of that debate, he started to fire up the rhetoric. The Paris attacks gave him a place to aim at. Since Muslims constitute only 1% of the population of the U.S. it's not a big chunk of the electorate to alienate. It was a successful strategy. Everyone hates ISIS. Why not turn that hatred onto the innocent victims of ISIS and law abiding Americans who happened to be Muslim? Why should Freedom of Religion be sacred?

Trump is likely to face attacks by Bush, but especially by Christie. Can he respond without saying something over the top? Is it possible to go over the top in this race?
Prediction: Poll numbers hold steady.

Carson

Carson's star is falling. This is his last shot and the nice guy strategy will not last. His lack of foreign policy knowledge has weakened him despite a trip to the Middle East. His attack of Obamacare no longer resonates as this contest turns into a foreign policy war. We know where nice guys finish.
Prediction: Poll numbers drop. Carson will do so badly in Iowa, followed by a defeat in New Hampshire that he will be out of the race by Super Tuesday.

Cruz

Having been attacked by Trump as not sufficiently evangelical, Cruz might be willing to come out swinging. Not sure. Cruz's strategy to stand near Trump and wait for Trump's collapse has worked. He could weather some Trump criticism and let the others go after Trump. Or he could see Trump having a moment of weakness and seize the moment. Et tu Brute!
Prediction: Numbers rise. He's the likely winner of Iowa, but if Trump gets forced out early, Rubio will be the backroom boys' favorite in a brokered convention.

Rubio

It's crunch time for the Republican Obama. We saw him acquit himself well with attacks from Bush, but can he position himself as the candidate that can unite the non-Trump majority? The only hope for the GOP is if they can get behind a single candidate soon. Rubio has the youth, charisma and intelligence. But with too many candidates hanging on through the first several primaries or caucuses, Trump may be able to nail down quite a few delegates before he's toppled. Rubio needs to hang in without saying or doing anything that will be held against him for years to come. He may need to be looking at 2020 for his day in the sun.
Prediction: numbers improve slightly. Third place in Iowa caucuses, but first in New Hampshire.

Bush

Jeb! should be getting ready to play some golf in Florida since his campaigning days are drawing to a close. Unless he scores a knockout punch on Trump, his backroom sponsors will be pushing him to retire from politics. Bush has enough money in his war chest to continue on well into the primaries, but the pressure will be on to get out for the good of the party.
Prediction: Numbers fall. Exit mid-March.

Kasich

I had to look up how to spell this guy's name. He's hoping to be the voice of reason in a part that's abandoned all  hope of reason. May try to hang in until the primaries in the more liberal states, but likely to exit soon.
Prediction: Last appearance on the main stage. Exit after New Hampshire.

Christie

Chris Christie is the man to watch on the stage on Tuesday. Need a drinking game? Take a drink every time he makes a reference to being a former prosecutor. If you're still standing at the end of the first hour, my hat's off to you. He has just fought his way back up from the kiddie table and he's the only one with the fire in the belly to take on Trump. He's looking to pick up support from the law and order Republicans. Since his bid is still a long-shot, he needs to make a mark, and there's no doubt he's a fighter. He'll come out swinging for Trump, possibly in defense of Muslims (since the alleged "thousands cheering" on 911 were supposed to be in Jersey City), but more likely claiming ground as the only one who understands how to use legitimate law enforcement to track down and convict terrorists. Some intrepid journalist should dig up Christie's prosecutorial record and see if he actually did prosecute any real terrorists.
Prediction: numbers up, but poor showing in Iowa. Second place in New Hampshire. Out after Super Tuesday.

Fiorina

Say goodbye to Carly. Her numbers have been falling since her moment in the sun. She might come out with something outrageous again, but she has been cowed by Trump in the past. She can't compete as the business expert, nor as the outsider. Some people might like her as an alternative to Hillary, but not enough. This will be her last showing on the main stage.
Prediction: She will be out after New Hampshire.

Paul

At this point it's not sure if Rand Paul is on the main stage or the warm up event. In any case his days as a presidential candidate in this race are numbered. It's unfortunate, as he's a smart guy and he is the only Republican who is as opposed to corporate welfare for the defence industry as he is to welfare for poor people.
Prediction: Out in time to spend Christmas with his family.

Application Letter to Donald Trump

In the not too distant future, Donald Trump may be returning to business from campaigning. For you up and coming executives, here's a possible letter of application to work for him. Feel free to copy and modify as necessary.

Dear Mr. Trump,

You don't know me, but I'm a terrific candidate for any executive position in your business. I know you must have hundreds of applicants for such positions but you should choose me. I know people who are applying to you and I love these guys (and women--who can be fantastic executives, most of the time) but let me tell you, they are losers. Don't hire them; hire me. I'm a winner.

First, let me give you my qualifications. I'm really smart. I went to university and graduated. I never got caught cheating or plagiarizing. I'm just sick of hearing about losers who are getting into trouble. We never win any more. I will change that. I will show your loser competitors how great Trump is. You won't believe what a good job I'll do for you. You'll make so much money from me that you won't know what to do with it. You have gold plated toilets on your plane now? You'll have gold-foil toilet paper when I work for you. You'll have gold plates that you throw in the trash instead of washing them when I work for you. Illegal immigrants will be going through your trash and taking it home to their countries--solving both the illegal immigrant problem and the trash disposal problem--when I work for you.

I have a fabulous resume. It's so fabulous that you don't want to read it. Let me tell you the highlights. I know how to buy and sell stuff. I've bought and sold lots of stuff. I've used cash and credit cards, barter and cheques. I know that, in principle, one should buy low and sell high. But the market rules. I love the market. It's fantastic. Winners understand the market. Like you. And I'm a winner, which is why you should hire me.

I know how to use the legal system to avoid consequences. Criminal, civil, bankruptcy...you name it, I know some terrific lawyers who can fix problems. People who get convictions are losers! Nothing has ever been proven against me. I'm a winner. They say winners should stick together. That's why I should be working for you.

We both know that this Presidential thing is going to get old for you pretty soon. You are going to want to exit the campaign as a winner, but before one of the primary or caucus states supports one of your loser opponents. I can help you put together an exit strategy that maintains your position as a winner. How about this: "Politics are for losers!" That could be your exit slogan. Or "I made American great again just by campaigning for six months!" Job done! You can get back to what you do best: firing losers!

It's important to plan in advance. No one wants to hear that you were drunk in a Des Moines bar after the Iowa caucuses mumbling racial epithets at Ben Carson (How do we even know he was born in the US? Has anyone seen his birth certificate? I can't hear a freaking thing he says!). No you won't be doing that. That's what a loser would do. And you're a winner. Hire me. I'm a winner, too. I will make Trump great again!

Sincerely,

 YOUR NAME HERE

Help! My Apple Watch is making me fat!

I'm minding my own business, quietly working on something and suddenly I feel this notification on my wrist. It's my Apple Watch, reminding me to get up and move around.

Now, I wish I had a lifestyle where I could alternate active things with sedentary things, but I make my living through words (written, not spoken) and that means I sit and work on a computer. Sometimes I do like to get out for a walk or even more vigorous exercise, but I can't drop everything and go jogging every hour.

But I understand the science behind this warning. It's been demonstrated that excess sitting affects circulation. You can't cram all your movement into one great sweaty ball at one point in the day and then sit and work at your desk for the rest of the day.

But I'm a one-track mind type of guy, so I like to stick at something until it's complete. When my Apple Watch says it's time to get up and move, that's what I do, and I plan to get back to work as fast as possible. At home that means a quick walk around.

But my home isn't very big. There are no stairs. In fact, of the two places I like to work both have nowhere to walk to except the kitchen.

So I'm working without any though of food or eating and the next thing, my Apple Watch is telling me to walk to the kitchen! So naturally, I start to think of food. And even if I harness all the self-restraint I can and return to my work without eating, that little idea is working its way through my brain and I know that before the next hour is up, I'll be eating a cookie, an apple, or having a cup of tea.

So thanks Apple. Maybe the movement ring is getting me to get out and really burn some calories to get my (current) 800 calorie goal, but the standing ring is only getting me to the refrigerator.